@Octorockandroll Yeah, we’re in almost total agreement here. The main reason I didn’t mention a couple of the things you brought up was just so my post didn’t get absurdly long, but I can post a few more thoughts about some of those matches now.
For Jaina, another huge problem in this match is her ground super. If you attempt to jump at her at all, she presses super and you take 2 damage. It doesn’t matter if it’s a crossup, it still hits from the back (IMO, this is one of the things about Jaina that most needs to be fixed). Even jump back melon gets hit, so you can’t even really bait it out. Her air super is also insanely bad, being a virtually guaranteed 1 damage at range that also keeps you out. I feel like if you don’t guess right at the start of the round and get in, you’ve already lost.
I’m actually surprised I didn’t mention that for Midori, because I brought it up on the Steam update announcement. I agree that that makes items unusually bad in this matchup. The worst thing is throwing a cake when his Dragon form is already out, so he gets it for even longer. As for @SaSSolino’s note about using ground B to grab cakes, this is possible, but at midrange he can just counter this (or, if Dragon, use ground command grab), so it’s kind of a risky option that you wouldn’t want to show too often.
I still think Setsuki has some advantage. One thing I noticed is that you cannot use Air Super in this match, wherever she is onscreen, she just presses B and you take 1 damage and you lose all your dice. She can frequently interrupt regular item tosses this way as well.
Your points on Grave are interesting. Like I said, I haven’t played this matchup much. I think the few times I did I won it fairly easily, but that could easily be due to Grave not knowing the matchup. It sounds like Grave would want to be pretty patient in this matchup, and allow Lum to create bad situations for himself. At least Grave’s projectile options aren’t as bad as Jaina’s, so I doubt this is quite as bad for Lum (if I’m forced to rush down, I’d rather it be against Grave), but I could see this being in Grave’s favour, but I still need to play it more.
When I played against Val, I certainly FELT like I was at a significant disadvantage the entire time, but even though I was playing against pretty good players we were trading matches pretty evenly. I definitely noticed that Val seems to control the matchup for like 90% of the game, but during that other 10% she just melts. There were so many times where I’d like lose my first 4 hitpoints and then get control of the matchup briefly and take her out immediately. Like Lum, her reversal options are pretty bad, so they can kind of bully each other in similar ways. Her ground super is a significantly better reversal than Lum’s ground super, though, so maybe that gives her a slight edge, the Val that gave me the most trouble made very smart use of it.
For Rook, like I said, I could see it being in Lum’s favour, but it can go south very fast. Ground Super is very good against any regular jumps, and his normal throw is also godlike, frequently being able to grab Lum out of absurd situations where it doesn’t seem like it should be possible (for example, if you air to air him from high up with A, he can grab you when you land). This forces you to guess with Yomi Counter a lot, and of course, he can just mix up with the kick to scare you. I was usually still winning these matches but I feel like I had to work for it.
I feel like there’s a pretty general trend in Lum MU’s, which is if the opponent can prevent Lum from tossing items, the matchup is bad. You’d pretty much expect that to be the case, so I feel like these matchup results shouldn’t be too surprising.
And yeah, as I posted in the tierlist thread, I feel like Lum is near the bottom overall. However, as a character, I think he’s almost exactly where every character should be in terms of overall power level. He’s extremely fun to play and I feel like he’s an “honest” character. He doesn’t have a lot of situations where he just autopilots buttons and destroys you or whatever. While I do think this game is pretty cool and I love how easy it is to learn, there’s still a lot of really dirty stuff in this game, maybe even moreso than most fighters. For example, a big part of why the Midori matchup sucks so much is Air C. If you get hit by this on the ground, the game says “jumpable!” but it’s actually not jumpable, it will also grab you out of a jump, the only option is to hit it with an air attack, but its hitbox is so favourable that it also beats out air attacks fairly often. He already has enough really good air to air options that he really doesn’t need to sometimes get free damage from this move even though you responded to it correctly.