I only played during the two free weekends, but I played quite a bit, and as Jaina exclusively, so I got some decent experience.
Jaina vs Grave: 5-5
I agree that this is even.
Jaina vs Geiger: 3-7
Geiger got nerfed a bit recently, which added some additional recovery frames to his super, so I don’t think he can punish arrows on reaction anymore except for at a specific spacing. Geiger doesn’t always have super, so I think you need to take advantage of the time that he doesn’t have it by using arrow setups to try and get in for damage. Still, I agree that this matchup is quite hard, because his super is really good, his normals are better than yours, and it’s tough for you to get in.
Jaina vs Setsuki: ?
I haven’t played this matchup much, but from what I have played it feels pretty even, so I’m inclined to agree with your rating.
Jaina vs Valerie: 4-6
I’ve struggled a lot with this matchup, and most times that I’ve fought a decent Valerie I’ve gotten bodied. For me, this matchup feels really bad, but I think that’s mostly because I don’t really know what to do against Valerie and how to punish her. Still, I think this matchup would be disadvantageous even if I did know how to play it, and that’s reflected in the MU number above.
Jaina vs Rook: 6-4
Jaina’s really good at putting on free damage and keeping Rook away, but if Rook gets in, it can be hard to get him off and he can kill you in two reads.
Jaina vs Midori: 6-4
Midori has some better tools to approach than Rook does, but it still isn’t easy for him, and he isn’t as scary as Rook is up close. Dragon form is quite bad against you, because it becomes very difficult for him to avoid arrows and approach, especially through jC. Dragon form’s best move, jC throw, is also very risky to use, as you can punish it on reaction with super for two damage. If not 6-4, I definitely think this matchup is 5.5-4.5.
Jaina vs DeGrey: 5.5-4.5
In my experience, DeGrey’s jSuper hasn’t been as oppressive as you claim. Your arrows are pretty good in this matchup. In particular, DeGrey will often want to jump in, so I’ve found that reading the jump and using jB is really strong. Plus, your DP is really good for dealing with DeGrey’s frametrap shenanigans. I think the matchup is quite close, but you have a bit of an edge.